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Upset of Night Special (My Picks For UFC74)

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CornishMMA

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dude .......... seriously ................ 1 of those 4 coming good is still not "likely" as you say, the most likely big dog to win is Hardonk for sure!! Wasting your money on Jensen and Kurt imho but still good luck

Post #16   7/31/07 3:07:50PM   

BerndRealBad

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Considering his last fight against Justin McCully, where a better submission guy could have finished him at least 10 times, I'm not too sure about this Hardonk thing. Is there a video on youtube or something floating around that has him knocking down trees with his kicks? Sure Mir has been 'a shadow of his former self', but if he is at least 60% back to his form, he shouldn't have a problem with submitting this guy. If who you were being trained by matters so much, then why did Cro Cop protege Zelg Galesic get tapped in the first round of the last PRIDE fight?

Post #17   7/31/07 3:26:45PM   

marketmaven

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Posted by BerndRealBad

Considering his last fight against Justin McCully, where a better submission guy could have finished him at least 10 times, I'm not too sure about this Hardonk thing. Is there a video on youtube or something floating around that has him knocking down trees with his kicks? Sure Mir has been 'a shadow of his former self', but if he is at least 60% back to his form, he shouldn't have a problem with submitting this guy. If who you were being trained by matters so much, then why did Cro Cop protege Zelg Galesic get tapped in the first round of the last PRIDE fight?



Hey, sometimes you have to take strong risks the 3 to 1 risk reward ratio here is to big to ignore for me. Not that much risk for quite a great reward. Hey, there is a good chance that Mir gets the submission, but after the 1st round, his chance goes from about 40% to about 10%. If this goes to a decision, or if there a knockout, it will be Hardonk's arm that is raised.

Post #18   7/31/07 6:17:58PM   

wilwith1l

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you gotta remember, we're not playin the house. It's two men in a cage.

Post #19   7/31/07 6:42:26PM   

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My upsets for the night are Mir getting KO'ed and Pellegrino beating Joe by decision.

Got alota money on them as well!!!!

Post #20   7/31/07 7:30:21PM   

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Posted by BerndRealBad

Considering his last fight against Justin McCully, where a better submission guy could have finished him at least 10 times, I'm not too sure about this Hardonk thing. Is there a video on youtube or something floating around that has him knocking down trees with his kicks? Sure Mir has been 'a shadow of his former self', but if he is at least 60% back to his form, he shouldn't have a problem with submitting this guy. If who you were being trained by matters so much, then why did Cro Cop protege Zelg Galesic get tapped in the first round of the last PRIDE fight?




Zelg Galesic wasn't Crocop's protege I believe they only trained together for a little bit actually he mostly trains with JT. Also Zelg was owning up untill the sub. It certainly does not automatically make you a great fighter to train with the best but it sure as hell doesn't hurt.

Post #21   7/31/07 7:31:41PM   

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I picked GSP to win and got the money on Kos so im gonna win lol

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He's been known to cure narcalepsy by just walking into a room. His orgin donation card list his beard. He is a lover not a fighter but he's also a fighter so don't get any idea's he is SpiderSilva I'm the baddest man alive

Post #22   7/31/07 7:34:26PM   

marketmaven

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Kos vs GSP should be great fight, but very difficult to pick. I am thinking GSP because he has something to prove, but man is Kos a great and dominant wrestler. Who wins the guy with the tremendous talent and overall well rounded giftedness, or the guy with tremendous athleticism who is spectacular in wrestling. Tough.

I'll keep to my safe picks (Kendall Grove, Travis Lutter, El Matador Huerta, and of course Hardonk over Mir).

Good Luck.

Post #23   7/31/07 10:27:45PM   

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I have everything riding on Gonzaga...

Im talkin play money and real money...well not everything, but more then I usually bet on one fight. I really think he is the real deal and I claim to be one of his biggest fans so I must support that now. I do love Randy, but this Gonzaga seems to be a whole different type of fighter.

Post #24   8/1/07 1:00:27AM   

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Posted by Lay_N_Pray

I have everything riding on Gonzaga...

Im talkin play money and real money...well not everything, but more then I usually bet on one fight. I really think he is the real deal and I claim to be one of his biggest fans so I must support that now. I do love Randy, but this Gonzaga seems to be a whole different type of fighter.



Wow, that is risky. I see Randy having problems and I see it a long difficult fight, but I couldnt put real money on that one. Despite the problems, as mentioned, the intangibles should win it for Randy.

Randy and Gonzaga

Post #25   8/1/07 6:05:34PM   

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Posted by marketmaven

Current bankroll is 1336. Looking to add to that by picking 4 fights in UFC 74 Respect. Here they are:

Kendall crushes Patrick Cote. --> This one should be easy for Kendall whose size and aggression has been overwhelming opponents. Patrick hits hard but he has been rather weak the last few fights I saw hm in. I dont see this one being close or going the distance. Betting 400 to gain 160.

Travis Lutter submits Ryan Jensen --> Travis is methodical and all about business, dont know much about the other guy but his record is strong 11-1 and he is also a submission guy, so I'll play it safe and make a smaller wager. Betting 100 for 25.

Huerto pounds out Crane --> Huerta has been really active and is almost relentless. How many fights has this guy fought this year? (answer this will be his fourth and he'll probably fight one more time before the year is out). Crane is no joke and is undefeated. Then again Doug Evans brought his A game and undefeated record in Huertas last fight. Huerta pounds Crane like he did Evans and leaves a broken, defeated man. Betting 236 to gain a measly 27.

UPSET SPECIAL -->
You cant make money if you keep betting on the favorites. You gotta see through the smoke and find a fight where people go for recognition over skill.

Hardonk Smashes Mir --> This guy Hardonk is no joke. He hits hard, and has near Cro Cop type leg kicks and Vandy type Knees. He is being tutored by Hoost and is built like a truck. Repeat, this man hits hard. Mir's only chance is an early submission, otherwise he'll be smashed, and retire. Name recognition alone won't win, and unless he pulls another lucky one (like he did with Tank Abbott), this looks like a no-brainer for me. Bettting $500 to gain $1500.

What are your thoughts?



If Crane is no joke and undefeated then why bet $236 on Huerta to get 27 if he beats Crane?

I agree with most your picks except for the Huerta/Crane fight... something tells me Huerta will win, but man the amount of money your betting to get $27 just isn't worth IMO...

I have made some nice bets, by UFC 75 im going to be one of the wealthiest players, good luck to you though..

Post #26   8/1/07 7:46:04PM   

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i put a lot on huerta who will probabley win easily

Post #27   8/2/07 10:37:47PM   

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Posted by Kastro

If Crane is no joke and undefeated then why bet $236 on Huerta to get 27 if he beats Crane?

I agree with most your picks except for the Huerta/Crane fight... something tells me Huerta will win, but man the amount of money your betting to get $27 just isn't worth IMO...

I have made some nice bets, by UFC 75 im going to be one of the wealthiest players, good luck to you though..



Crane is no joke, but he is not going to beat Huerta either. Huerta, I think is a top three fighter in his division. Crane is a good fighter, good enough to get in the UFC but not the same caliber. You are technically right though, it is alot of money for not that much return and it is probably my weakest pick of the bunch.

Good post and good luck to you too.

Post #28   8/3/07 12:19:23AM   

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Posted by marketmaven

Current bankroll is 1336. Looking to add to that by picking 4 fights in UFC 74 Respect. Here they are:

Kendall crushes Patrick Cote. --> This one should be easy for Kendall whose size and aggression has been overwhelming opponents. Patrick hits hard but he has been rather weak the last few fights I saw hm in. I dont see this one being close or going the distance. Betting 400 to gain 160.

Travis Lutter submits Ryan Jensen --> Travis is methodical and all about business, dont know much about the other guy but his record is strong 11-1 and he is also a submission guy, so I'll play it safe and make a smaller wager. Betting 100 for 25.

Huerto pounds out Crane --> Huerta has been really active and is almost relentless. How many fights has this guy fought this year? (answer this will be his fourth and he'll probably fight one more time before the year is out). Crane is no joke and is undefeated. Then again Doug Evans brought his A game and undefeated record in Huertas last fight. Huerta pounds Crane like he did Evans and leaves a broken, defeated man. Betting 236 to gain a measly 27.

UPSET SPECIAL -->
You cant make money if you keep betting on the favorites. You gotta see through the smoke and find a fight where people go for recognition over skill.

Hardonk Smashes Mir --> This guy Hardonk is no joke. He hits hard, and has near Cro Cop type leg kicks and Vandy type Knees. He is being tutored by Hoost and is built like a truck. Repeat, this man hits hard. Mir's only chance is an early submission, otherwise he'll be smashed, and retire. Name recognition alone won't win, and unless he pulls another lucky one (like he did with Tank Abbott), this looks like a no-brainer for me. Bettting $500 to gain $1500.

What are your thoughts?



Ok Recap:
Kendall Grove Cote
Lutter is out so will have to make another pick.
Huerta and Crane This one is a little risky
Hardonk and Mir

Good luck all.

Last edited 8/4/07 11:15AM server time by marketmaven
Edit note/reason: n/a

Post #29   8/4/07 11:14:10AM   
 
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