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UFC Fight Night 125: Machida vs Anders

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jbmoviefan

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Closest fight on MMAPG:

Machida 34%/Anders 66%
Dodson 64%/Munhoz 36%
Johnson 32%/Golm 68%
Moraes 37%/Means 63%
Andrade 47%/Vera 53%
Soto 54%/Alcantara 46%

Closest fights IRL:

Green 45%/Prazeres 59%
Dodson 60%/Munhoz 44%
Golm 62%/Johnson 42%
Andrade 49%/Vera 56%
Patrick 69%/Hadzovic 35%
Moraes 37%/Means 68%
Alcantara 51%/Soto 54%
Figueiredo 60%/Morales 44%

Wagers (line difference, fighter, wager):

170 Anders 10-20%
45 Dodson 0-10%
335 Cachoeira 5-15%
100 Green 5-15%
10 Golm 0-10%
45 Santos 0-10%
125 Means 10-20%
425 Hadzovic 15-25%
25 Andrde
5 Soto
255 Morales 10-20%
355 Stevenson 5-15%

Parlay 10-25% (parlay options are in order of best to worst RL odds for each category)

Safest profitable option - Anders and Means
Alternate safe options - Santos, Dodson, or Golm
High value options - Green, Morales, or Hadzovic
Close line options - Andrade, Vera, Alcantara or Soto

RL Prop bets:

Anders KO -140
Prazeres DEC +156/Green DEC +225
Shev DEC +177/Shev KO +210
Dodson DEC +134/Munhoz DEC +273
Golm KO +160/Johnson DEC +330
Santos KO -135
Vera DEC +180/Andrade DEC +265
Patrick DEC -105
Means DEC +155/Means KO +265
Alcantara DEC +246/Soto DEC +255
Viana DEC +187/Viana KO +265/Viana SUB +280
Figueiredo DEC +171/Morales DEC +315

I'll put up some thoughts on the close fights if I have time, hope these numbers help everyone. Anyone is welcome to re-post this in their camp's forum.

Last edited 2/1/18 2:13PM server time by jbmoviefan
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Post #1   2/1/18 1:09:44PM   

aussiemma

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I've had a late change of mind to go with Green over Prazeres. I think his high level wrestling and athleticism will give Prazeres fits, the guy just needs more output from range and he should be good against the Brazilian midget.

Post #2   2/2/18 11:48:01AM   

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I think you're right there, and I also thought Green did enough to beat Khabilov through the 2nd and 3rd in his last outing. Khabilov and Prazeres both throw relatively low volume and complete an average of 4 TDs per fight, but Khab is a much better striker, and also had the same reach as Green, where Prazeres will be giving up 6 inches. This isn't a lock by any means, as Michel is still a bowling ball and very heavy on top, but as you said Green is the better athlete and should be able to use his wrestling to counter the shots. Unfortunately it's going to come down to judging, as I don't see either man finishing the other, and as we saw last week with Dober/Camacho and Fili/Berrmudez it's hard to know what the judges are looking for, and don't forget this is in Brazil. I'm still going Green UD as only 27% have him picked on here and even factoring in the Brazil advantage I still call this a toss up. Great opportunity for teams who are low on points to make a move.

Post #3   2/2/18 2:09:09PM   

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I think Dodson's speed and creativity should be enough to carry him through to a DEC. Dodson throws a bit less, but he also gets hit a lot less, and for once will actually have a 2 inch reach advantage. Munhoz needs to rock Dodson, which has never happened to John, or he needs this fight on the floor, and only DJ and Moraes have gotten him there. The man already went the rounds twice with the GOAT, and despite being blow outs, were arguably the 2 closest fights DJ has seen at FW, that's enough for me. Dodson UD.

Post #4   2/2/18 2:21:41PM   

george112

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I think the opposite on Dodson

I could see him eating leg kick after leg kick.

Pedro can handle himself on the ground if it gets there

Ill concede the speed advantage to Dodson along with superior cardio. However he has a tendency to think he has done enough in the fight to just kind of coast in the 3rd. You would think with the close decisions he has lost he would have learned his lesson to SOLIDIFY the last round of fights with higher output and more aggression

I actually was very high on Dodson at one point even going so far to say he would be the next champ. Didnt turn out that way though

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Post #5   2/2/18 3:33:50PM   

Braden

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It doesn't really matter since Dodson vs. Munhoz is off the card. Munhoz wasn't disciplined enough during the holiday season.

Post #6   2/2/18 3:44:16PM   

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Super lame. Glad to cause even if he would have somehow made weight or whatever there was no way he was going to keep up with Dodson and his cardio without being in tip top shape

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Post #7   2/2/18 4:16:13PM   

aussiemma

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I can kind of buy Munhoz excuse for not having hot water, i lived there for about 2 months and there are some total shit/hell hole areas in each major city. A few times i stayed at a hostel and there was no hot water and the toilet was placed directly under the shower and the shower was just a hole in the wall lol.

Post #8   2/2/18 9:06:58PM   

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Not really enough footage on Golm, but his hands looked quick, and he hit a nice trip against Colombo. Johnson is the more proven entity, and his fight against Volkov in conjunction with his deceptively good cardio raised his stock in my book, especially for a man near the HW limit. Golm is young though, and seems to have good top control, but I am tempted to go with the dog in Johnson. If this gets out of the 1rst who know what will happen, and Johnson can certainly wear on guys in the clinch. From a camp perspective it's probably best to ride the fence a little on this fight a little.

Andrade doesn't seem to have the best fight IQ and really wings all his punches. Vera has looked better with each fight, and despite the loss, had a great 3rd round against Lineker. I like Vera to use his reach and kicks to keep Andrade at distance and win a clear decision.

Hadzovic landed some good shots on Held, but really had zero answer for the grappling. If not for the lucky knee he would have lost a clear dec to Marcin, and the roll to a leg lock from Held was the only reason the opportunity was even available. Patrick isn't great on the feet, but he's functional enough to get into the clinch. In terms of wrestling he's better than Held, and far bigger/heavier on top. My only concern is that Alan tends to fade in fights, but I expect Hadzovic to be tired from all the grappling as well. Patrick by the UD, but Hadzovic is still worth a sizable bet given the odds.

Despite the relatively close odds I don't see how Means loses to Moraes. For me it's just a question of whether Tim gets the KO or not, and I'm leaning toward does, probably in the 2nd. If Garcia couldn't get Means down, I don't see the limited wrestling of Sergio having any chance at all, and though Usman has more power, Tim has the much crisper striking, so I don't see Moraes being able to go the rounds.

Despite being the closest fight IRL I see a clear edge for Soto over Alcantara. I was pretty high on Iuri early in his UFC career, but have faded him a lot of late. He seems to be aging very quickly which is taking away his explosiveness and leaving him with only his veteran savy to rely on. With Soto I had the opposite impression, that his fight agasint TJ was only competitive because Dillashaw played it safe, and with 2 loses after that I was sure he'd be cut (despite the fact I thought he beat Tanaka). Since then Joe seemed to have turned a corner, improving both his TDD and volume of strikes. Yeah he got subbed by Johns in his last outing, but it was most likely a fluke, and probably what's keeping the odds as close as they are. Soto UD.

Last edited 2/3/18 6:51PM server time by jbmoviefan
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Post #9   2/3/18 4:44:09PM   

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Get my last thoughts in before start time. Figuerdo plays well to the crowd and judges. If Morales wants this he's going to need another finish, which is completely possilbe with his hands and sub skills. I'm going with the brazillian in brazil, figuerdo UD.

Good luck all!

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Post #10   2/3/18 7:28:30PM   

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Post #11   2/4/18 4:41:29AM