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UFC on Fox 27: Jacare vs Brunson 2

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jbmoviefan

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Closest fights on MMAPG:

Brunson 36%/Souza 64%
Koch 36%/Green 64%
Silva 50%/Pichel 50%

Closest fights IRL:

Brunson 46%/Souza 59%
Fili 43%/Bermudez 61%
Green 62%/Koch 42%
Arnett 36%/Sandhagen 68%
Chookagian 61%/Borella 43%
Lima 42%/Markos 62%
Siva 53%/Pichel 53%
Dober 64%/Camacho 41%

Brunson/Souza - Brunson's hands are much better than 6 years ago when these two fought last, and given Brunson's 100% TDD it seems like an uphill battle for Souza. In outworking Siva and KOing Machida it looks like Brunson has turned a corner in terms of his patience, which should be key in tiring Souza to get the finish. Brunson rnd 2 KO.

Fili/Bermudez - Outside of being KOd by the Jung uppercut Dennis has had an iron chin in the UFC, and was doing pretty well in that fight before getting caught. Fili doesn't have the size, power, or TDD of Jung, so outside of a lucky high kick I see him spending 3 rounds on his back. Bermudez UD.

Green/Koch - I'm assuming the odds are what they are due to Koch being ground out by Guida in his last fight, in conjunction with the competitive fights Green had with Lando, Magamedov, and Barboza. I don't see Green trying to grind out a win, and I consider Koch's striking to be better than Lando or Magemedov, at least in terms finishing power. Koch rnd 1 KO.

Arnett/Sandhagen - Arnett showed good volume and toughness against Davis in his DWCS fight despite the loss. If Arnett wins it will almost definitely be a DEC on the feet. Sandhagen has very good hands as well that he uses to set up his TDs, which is where he has a very clear advantage in this fight. Unless Arnett uses lots of movement and angles, which he doesn't often do, he's going to spend the better part of 3 rounds on his back. Sandhangen UD.

Chookagian/Borella - Really like the kicks of Chookagian, but I don't think they'll be enough to keep Borella at distance to avoid the TDs. Borella hit TDs consistently on a good Judoku in Dudieva, and given that she mixes in her striking with TDs better than Carmouche, I think she'll be able to get this fight to ground consistently for a grind out victory. Borella UD.

Lima/Markos - Markos had a decent upset win over Esparza, but I think that's the extent of her skill, and honestly I thought she dropped the 2nd and 3rd. Actually, with the exception of the accumulation of small shots in the 2nd and 3rd against Daly, I think Randa has lost all her UFC bouts, though competitively. Unless she can out grapple the much better athlete in Lima I don't see how Markos wins this fight. Lima got caught off guard by the grappling of Torres, but Randa doens't have that kid of explosiveness, and in watching Lima's fight with Aldrich you can see what Julia is able to do an athlete far better than Markos. Lima UD, though I won't be surprised by a SUB.

Silva/Pichel - I'm concerned about the power early from Silva, but he seemed too content off his back against an aged veteran in Madadi his last time out. He finished the fight strong, but over committing to shots and bad transitions off the TDD cost him. I'm not sure where Pichel's wrestling is at given his last performance against Brown, but if it's still near where it once was he'll have a sizable advantage over Silva. This is justifiably a close fight, but Pichel seems to be the smarter fighter, and if he can avoid the power of Silva and time his shots I think he can grind out a decision. Pichel UD.

Dober/Camacho - I really enjoy watching both these guys. Dober has the advantage in space where he can use his movement and kicks, while Frank has the advantage in close with the boxing. Frank has a huge advantage in volume, as well as on the ground where he's a bjj champion. Other than a Dober KO, which could absolutely happen, I think Frank controls this fight easily with his forward pressure, and if it goes to the ground could also end with a Camacho SUB as Dober's ground defense is always in question. Camacho UD.

I'd enjoy hearing what others have to say on these close fights.

Wager Equation:

35 Brunson
55 Fili 0-10%
330 Rinaldi 5-15%
230 Camacho 10-20%
35 Green 0-10%
220 Pepey 5-15%
265 Borella 10-20%
70 Lima 0-10%
375 Kim 10-20%
25 Silva
520 Sullivan 15-25%
200 Sandhagen 15-25%

Parlay 10-25%

Safest profitable parlay - Sandhagen and Green
Alternative safe options - None
High risk options - Borella, Lima, Camacho, Sullivan, or Kim

Tough event for wagering, can't say I really like Green for the parlay despite the odds. I think Borella, Lima, or Camacho would make a good 2nd leg to go along with Sandhagen at a 10-20% wager.

Vegas Props:

Brunson KO +169/Souza SUB +230
Bermudez DEC +156/Filli DEC +300
Gillespie DEC +102/Gillespie KO +280
Green DEC +171/Green KO +323/Koch DEC +325 (I'm placing a RL bet on Koch KO +600)
Sandhagen DEC +142
Bektic KO +103/Bektic DEC +203
Chookagian DEC +151/Borella DEC +300
Markos DEC +148/Lima DEC +240
Pichel DEC +241/Silva DEC +250
Kish DEC +110/Kim DEC +385
Price KO +145/Price DEC +312
Dober DEC +260/Dober KO +319/Camacho DEC +385/Camacho KO +388

Good luck.

Last edited 1/25/18 7:30PM server time by jbmoviefan
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Post #1   1/25/18 7:25:41PM   

aussiemma

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Post #2   1/25/18 9:15:57PM   

aussiemma

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I have about 4 different outcomes just from the fights you have reviewed above, should be an interesting event.

Good call putting up your wager graph but i still doubt any of the other teams are smart enough to follow it

Post #3   1/25/18 9:20:58PM   

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NM

Last edited 1/26/18 8:41AM server time by shawn91111
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Post #4   1/26/18 8:39:01AM   

aussiemma

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JBnofightcampfan ?

Post #5   1/26/18 6:09:54PM   

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Why the hell would you post this? Get a camp, post it there, nobody else cares...this is just pathetic.

Last edited 1/26/18 6:41PM server time by loosecannon
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Post #6   1/26/18 6:40:30PM   

aussiemma

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Posted by LooseCannon

Why the hell would you post this? Get a camp, post it there, nobody else cares...this is just pathetic.



it's a good strategy i'll give him that

Post #7   1/26/18 7:19:31PM   

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Posted by LooseCannon

Why the hell would you post this? Get a camp, post it there, nobody else cares...this is just pathetic.



Do it better.

Post #8   1/27/18 3:43:55AM   

LooseCannon

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Strategy for who?

Do it better?

You’ve done alright the past few seasons, but your time is running out.

For real, is this a ploy to be right back in Playground Bullie, try to help other HW camps, or are you actually done with them & a legit free agent?

If so I want the reason public (you did create this topic) as to why specifically you left the reigning top camp.. Given your response here may dictate your future.

This original post is beyond odd in a public forum so a full explanation would do well if you’re looking for a camp,..

Otherwise, I assume this is my original thought of trying to cheat for ‘be right back’ with PB. Bottom line though, as for this sesson, PB or whoever...ya done.

Post #9   1/27/18 4:58:20AM   

jbmoviefan

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Just tring to help everyone understand how to play the game better. Despite many players being here since 07 the disperity in the scores between the best and worst is ridiculous. Use the picking and rl wager %s to determine which fights are worth debating, compare the RL odds to the MMAPG odds to see where your money should go, bet 100% of your money every event, and use the vegas props to help pick your finishing details. Do that and you're in the top 30 wagering and top 50 picking every season, much better than that most seasons. I'd join a team as camp leader if they really wanted some badges, but I'm unwilling to accept less than what's layed out above. I'll focus on BOTR for the cash prize this season, and do a quick post like this for the Big Show events to help everyone else.

Post #10   1/27/18 1:47:25PM   

Shawn91111

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Posted by jbmoviefan

Just tring to help everyone understand how to play the game better. Despite many players being here since 07 the disperity in the scores between the best and worst is ridiculous. Use the picking and rl wager %s to determine which fights are worth debating, compare the RL odds to the MMAPG odds to see where your money should go, bet 100% of your money every event, and use the vegas props to help pick your finishing details. Do that and you're in the top 30 wagering and top 50 picking every season, much better than that most seasons. I'd join a team as camp leader if they really wanted some badges, but I'm unwilling to accept less than what's layed out above. I'll focus on BOTR for the cash prize this season, and do a quick post like this for the Big Show events to help everyone else.



Then why is your pick % so low?

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Post #11   1/27/18 7:15:55PM   

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Too many stupid risks, didn't research anything the first few years, basically I suck. Not saying this strategy is perfect, just that I haven't found a better way to do it.

Post #12   1/27/18 8:00:22PM   

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I thought Camacho did enough but he should have stayed heavier on top, fun fight though.

Post #13   1/27/18 8:42:28PM   

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I know there’s 2 fights left but I wonder who’s in the running for fotn betweet Green/Koch and Dober/Camacho?

Post #14   1/27/18 9:00:00PM   

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Posted by Five-Alive

I know there’s 2 fights left but I wonder who’s in the running for fotn betweet Green/Koch and Dober/Camacho?



i'd give it to Koch/green all day, Comacho/Dober was just ugly and too sloppy

Post #15   1/27/18 9:12:22PM   
 
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